Friday, October 13, 2017

Poker on Friday the 13th

My day started out at the Audi dealership.  Due to a recall on Takata airbags, I went in for a replacement.  According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the following car manufacturers are affected by this recall: Acura, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Chrysler, Daimler, Dodge/Ram, Ferrari, Fisker, Ford, GMC, Honda, Infiniti, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Lexus, Lincoln, Mazda, McLaren, Mercedes-Benz, Mercury, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn, Scion, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, and Volkswagen.

I ended up getting a loaner car for the day, free of charge of course.  Here is a look at the 2017 Audi A4 Quattro.


I took the new Audi for a spin straight down to the MGM for my first poker session of the month.  I felt like the famous work/leisure/lifestyle blogger who also rides in luxury around DC.

I got seated right away.  In seat 7, within 20 minutes, I'm dealt A-A!  I'm in the BB.  UTG+1 leads out for $13, gets one caller, and it folds back to me.  I make it $50 and he goes all-in for $100 total.  The other guy folds and I call.  We flip over our cards and he also shows A-A!  The part that sucked was that he had the ace of spades and the flop had two spades.  The turn was a spade.  At that point, I was getting ready to curse the poker Gods.  Luckily the river was a red card so we chopped.

Not the best photo of Aces vs Aces

Over the next two hours, I had increased my stack by $155.  I was one of the blinds and holding A-8.  Seat 4 and seat 5 also put in $3.  The flop was 8-5-3.  I lead out for $9, seat 4 called, and then seat 5 made it $25.  I made the call and seat 4 folded.  The turn was the J and I checked.  He bet $100!  He had $50 more behind.

I thought about it.  I don't think he had 8-8 or 8-x.  There is a chance he had 3-3 or 5-5.  Did he have two clubs.  Would he bet his flush draw that way on the flop.  Maybe if he was holding 7-6.  My pot odds vary depending on his holding.  Could we use implied odds to add the $50 he had left if I called the turn.

What would you do?

Update:

I didn't fold right away.  I had outs but the problem was that I didn't have enough outs.  I put him on either 3-3,5-5, or a made flush.  If he had a pocket pair then I'm drawing to eight clubs and only seven if he had a flush.  I folded and booked a $125 win.

5 comments:

  1. Fold. The math just doesn't work - if he has a flush already or a set you only have 7 outs - unless you have a read that he is a maniac and his overbet on this turn is probably a bluff. Without having already seen him bluff like this, must fold.

    Since you were in one of the blinds, you are more likely to have flopped 2-pair on this flop than anyone else, so I'm inclined to give him credit for a "2-pair plus" hand with his flop raise, with the other possibility being a flush draw (including the 7c 6c combo draw).

    So just fold and find a better spot to accumulate more chips.

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    Replies
    1. I agree, he wasn't playing around by raising so big.

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  2. I'm leaning toward a fold here. He makes an almost pot sized raise over your bet then puts in a bigger than pot sized bet after the turn when a 3rd club hits. Unless you really feel a bluff there, it looks to me like a flopped set. You're right it seems suspicious for him to bet like that on the turn if he did have the flush draw. But if he doesn't have the flush and you called with a flush draw, why is he betting big there? You didn't raise preflop so 2 suited cards like 7-6, 4-5, 4-6 is definitely in your range there. The amount he bet pot committed him - so why didn't he push in there? I think you're beat without a river club.

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    Replies
    1. True, I decided not to chase the flush.

      Delete
  3. Don’t know why my first comment didn’t post but realizing that I’m late to the game, I fold for the reasons stated above.

    ReplyDelete